Kasuwancin nickel LME ya sake yin hauka a wannan makon (Nuwamba 14-18, 2022). A ranar Litinin, farashin nickel na LME na wata uku ya tashi a taƙaice zuwa sama da $30000 a kowace ton a karon farko tun watan Yuni, wanda ya saba wa sabon ƙayyadaddun yau da kullun na 15% na canjin farashin. Bayan ya kai mafi girman farashin dala 31275 tun farkon watan Mayu a ranar Talata, farashin ya fadi zuwa dala 25800 kan kowace tan. LME ta mayar da martani ta hanyar haɓaka tazarar farko da kashi 28% zuwa dalar Amurka 6100 a kowace ton daga farashin rufe ranar Juma'a da ƙarfafa ayyukan sa ido kan kasuwa.  

Dukansu musayar da kasuwar nickel yanzu suna biyan farashin rugujewar a cikin Maris, lokacin da LME ya dakatar da ciniki tare da soke ciniki. Kotun Burtaniya ta kalubalanci wannan hukunci a yanzu.  

Tare da tallafin kuɗi, yawan kuɗin mu'amala na munin nickel LME da Canjin Futures na Shanghai (ShFE) ya ragu sosai, suna ƙara ƙarin canji a cikin kasuwar da ke da saurin hauhawar farashin farashi a ƙarƙashin yanayi mafi kyau.

01  Tarkon canzawa

Fitowar babban birnin bayan Maris ya bar rashin ruwa da tarko mai ƙarfafa kai ga kasuwar nickel.

Goldman Sachs ya yi gargadin a cikin Afrilu: "Rashin babban jarin kasuwanci zai rage hada-hadar kasuwa, rage yawan ruwa, karuwar rashin daidaito, da kara samun masu ba da lamuni da masu saka hannun jari, da kuma kara sa hannu da rashin daidaituwa."

Tun daga Maris, yawan cinikin nickel LME ya ragu sosai. Matsakaicin juzu'i na yau da kullun a cikin Oktoba ya kasance 32811, ƙasa da kashi 54% a shekara, matakin mafi ƙanƙanta a cikin aƙalla shekaru goma.

Ya zuwa yanzu a wannan shekarar, yawan cinikin nickel ya ragu da kashi 24% idan aka kwatanta da na daidai wannan lokacin na bara, saboda irin ayyukan kasuwanci mai karfi a watan Janairu da Fabrairu. Faduwar shiga ya fi fitowa fili a birnin Shanghai, inda aka samu raguwar adadin ciniki na kasuwar nan gaba ta Shanghai da kashi 71 cikin dari a cikin watanni 10 na farkon shekarar 2022.

Buɗaɗɗen matsayi a ƙarshen Oktoba ya kasance ƙasa da 41% idan aka kwatanta da na Oktoba 2021. Duk da cewa ƙarancin kuɗi ya haifar da sauyin farashi a bayyane a London, bambancin farashin lokaci ya kasance cikin kwanciyar hankali.

Sabanin haka, a Shanghai, abin da ke da wahalar sarrafawa shi ne bambancin farashin. Rushewar kuɗin ruwa ya yi daidai da ƙananan ƙananan hannun jari da kuma tsarin ƙima na tabo mai tsayi. Adadin da aka yiwa rijista na kasuwar nan gaba ta Shanghai ya kai tan 4634 kacal, wanda bai kai tan 10000 ba tun daga watan Afrilun bara, wanda ya haifar da matsi kafin tashin hankalin kasuwar London a bana. Musayar tana fatan gyara tarkacen nickel na ruwa ta hanyar faɗaɗa iyakantaccen jerin samfuran samfuran da za a iya samarwa Duk da haka, kafin sake gina ƙididdiga da girman ciniki, dogon lokaci na rikice-rikice da ƙimar tabo na dindindin sun zama sabon al'ada na kasuwar Shanghai.

02 Kamfanin jita-jita

Halin ciniki a London da Shanghai ya tsananta canjin farashi a kasuwa, wanda ba ya rasa abubuwan da za su iya haifar da labarai:

1. Indonesiya na shirin kara farashin fitar da kayayyaki (wanda aka riga aka sani);

2. Wani kamfani na Indonesiya ya kama wuta (da sauri ya musanta);

3. Ana iya dakatar da samar da albarkatun Nornickel daga ma'adinan Rasha zuwa matatun Finnish.

An tabbatar da na ƙarshe aƙalla gaskiya ne. Rukunin VR, ma'aikacin layin dogo na Finnish, zai dakatar da jigilar kayayyaki na Rasha daga shekara mai zuwa, kodayake Nornickel yana nazarin sauran hanyoyin sufuri, gami da jigilar ruwa.

Binciken da aka yi kan abubuwan da ke iya haifar da kasuwar bijimi ya kuma gano cewa masana'antar Prony Resources da ke Wulang New Caledonia za ta yi aiki da sauri a cikin rubu'i na hudu sakamakon wani dan leken asiri.

Babu ɗayan waɗannan "labarai" da zai iya bayyana dalilin da yasa farashin nickel ya tashi 40% tun farkon Nuwamba.

Akasin haka, yana nuna cewa jita-jita na iya tayar da kasuwar da ba ta dace ba cikin sauƙi. Nickel yanzu yana da kulawa musamman ga rafukan labarai. Matsayin karafa na Rasha yana ƙara zama mahimmanci, ba wai kawai saboda Nornickel babban mai kera ba ne, har ma saboda nickel ɗinsa (na farko mai ladabi nickel) ana iya siyar da shi a LME da Shanghai Futures Exchange. LME ta yanke shawarar kada ta dakatar da fitar da nickel zuwa Rasha, amma muddin Rasha ta ci gaba da "ayyukan soji na musamman" a Ukraine, barazanar takunkumin gwamnati za ta wanzu. Wannan rashin tabbas a kusa da hanyar haɗi mai mahimmanci a cikin sarkar samar da kayayyaki ta duniya kuma zai fassara zuwa canjin farashi a cikin mafi kyawun yanayin. A halin yanzu ƙananan ciniki ƙarar kasuwa na gaba, wannan wata dabara ce don gaba mafi daji. Hakazalika, zaɓin kiran da aka saya kwanan nan na Disamba shima zai iya tashi, kamar $30000 (hannu 489 yanzu), $35000 (hannu 360) ko ma $55000 (hannu 25). Idan farashin ya sake hauhawa, shin aikin bunkasar kasuwar bijimi ne ko kuma yiwuwar tarkon kasuwar sa?

Girman waɗannan matsayi yawanci bai isa ba don samun tasirin haɓakar zaɓi a kan yanayin kasuwancin bijimin, amma daga ƙimar ciniki na yanzu, yana da alama cewa duk abin da zai yiwu a wannan kasuwa.

03 Rarraba kasuwa

Kasuwar nickel ta zahiri tana haɓaka saboda tana shirye don biyan sabon buƙatun batirin abin hawa na lantarki, amma a lokaci guda ya rasa ikon yin shinge da haɓakar farashinsa. Wannan katsewar ya ɗauki shekaru da yawa.

Babu wani nau'in nickel da ke fitowa daga Indonesiya, sabuwar cibiyar samar da kayayyaki ta duniya, zuwa babbar masana'antar batir ta kasar Sin, da za a iya isar da shi a LME ko Shanghai Futures Exchange. Wannan rashin daidaituwa tsakanin kasuwar lissafin da kasuwar zahiri ta kasance mahimmin al'amari a cikin rudani a cikin Maris.

Idan aka kwatanta da ɗimbin kwararar samar da kayayyaki, babban ɗan gajeren matsayi na Aoyama Group ya fi girma ga kasuwa da aka ayyana ta hanyar raguwar sassan farko a cikin sarkar samarwa. Abubuwan da suka faru a cikin Maris da sakamakon raguwar kuɗin ruwa sun haɓaka bambancin farashin.

Maganin dogon lokaci shine ƙaddamar da kwangilar musayar musayar daban-daban don samfuran tsaka-tsaki kamar ferronickel, gauraye hydroxide biya ko nickel sulfate. Ta wannan hanyar, masu amfani suna da tsarin kuɗi wanda za su iya keɓance bayyanar farashin su don takamaiman samfura.

Koyaya, ba a sani ba ko sabon filin masana'antar nickel don batura an haɓaka shi sosai kuma yana iya ƙirƙirar daidaitattun hanyoyin farashi. Kafin wannan, LME da Shanghai Futures Exchange dole ne su sarrafa kasuwar nickel ɗinsu mai wahala, kuma ƙarin hani na iya zama dole.